TAIPEI, Taiwan — October 14, 2025. A tropical depression is forecast to develop over the waters near Guam as early as Thursday, with the potential to strengthen into Typhoon Fengshen by Friday or Saturday, according to the Central Weather Agency (CWA). Forecasters are closely monitoring whether the system will interact with the incoming northeast monsoon, which could influence Taiwan’s weather in the coming days.
CWA forecaster Zhang Junyao said that Wednesday’s weather will be mostly cloudy to sunny, with isolated short-term showers along Keelung’s north coast and the Hengchun Peninsula. Scattered brief rains are also expected in eastern Taiwan during the early morning, while localized thunderstorms may occur in the afternoon in southern Taiwan and mountainous regions south of Chiayi.
From Thursday to Friday, intermittent short-term showers are forecast for the north coast of Keelung, Greater Taipei’s mountain areas, and the northeastern region. Hualien, Taitung, Greater Taipei, and Hengchun Peninsula will also see scattered showers, while other parts of the country will experience cloudy to sunny skies. In the afternoon, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and nearby mountain areas could see isolated thunderstorms.
On Saturday, increased moisture on the windward side will bring local showers to the northern coast, eastern Taiwan, Hengchun Peninsula, and mountainous areas of Taipei, while other regions remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Afternoon thunderstorms are again likely in southern and mountainous regions.
The northeast monsoon is expected to strengthen by Sunday and Monday (October 19–20), bringing cooler temperatures and heavier rainfall. The outer circulation of the tropical depression—or potential typhoon—may enhance moisture levels, resulting in localized heavy to torrential rain in Keelung’s north coast, the eastern region, Hengchun Peninsula, and the mountain areas of Greater Taipei. Other parts of northern and southern Taiwan may also experience short-term heavy rain, while central areas can expect light, scattered showers.
In terms of temperature, Taiwan will remain hot before Saturday, with highs of 33–35°C in the west and around 31°C in the east. By Sunday, as the northeast monsoon strengthens, northern and Yilan-Hualien regions will cool to 28–30°C, while the rest of Taiwan will see highs of 30–33°C. Nighttime temperatures will range from 22–24°C in the north and Yilan-Hualien, and 25–28°C in other areas.
Meteorologists expect the tropical system near Guam to continue intensifying over the next two to three days, with a high likelihood of becoming a typhoon by the weekend. Current models suggest the system may move westward between the Bashi Channel and Luzon Island, though its exact path remains uncertain.
Zhang emphasized that if the system strengthens into Typhoon Fengshen, it may indirectly influence Taiwan’s weather, particularly in southern regions, by increasing rainfall through moisture transport. He also cautioned that the combined effects of the typhoon and northeast monsoon could bring complex weather patterns, urging residents—especially those involved in disaster recovery efforts in Hualien—to stay alert for updates and potential heavy rainfall over the weekend.