October 15, 2025 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global and regional economic outlook upward, citing weaker-than-expected impacts from tariffs and improved financial conditions. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF projected global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, an increase from its July forecast of 3.0% and a significant rise from the 2.8% estimate in April.
For Taiwan, the IMF raised its 2025 real GDP growth forecast to 3.7%, up from 2.9% in the spring report. The agency attributed Taiwan’s stronger-than-expected performance to robust exports and a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investments. Taiwan’s forecast for 2026 was revised downward slightly to 2.1% from 2.5% in April.
The report also highlighted Taiwan’s consumer price growth, estimating an annual increase of 1.7% this year, slightly below the earlier forecast of 1.8%. Inflation is expected to remain moderate at 1.6% in 2026. The labor market is projected to stay stable, with unemployment holding steady at 3.4% this year and next.
The IMF credited the recent trade agreements between the United States and several major economies for easing tariff pressures. These agreements have largely avoided the extensive tariffs previously threatened by former U.S. President Donald Trump, while retaliatory measures from other countries have been minimal. This contributed to the upward revision of global growth forecasts.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that in addition to lower tariffs, the global economy benefited from private sector flexibility, early import adjustments, supply chain realignments, fiscal stimulus in Europe and China, a weakening U.S. dollar, and the rapid expansion of AI investment. “The overall situation is better than we thought, but it is still not ideal and remains more cautious than a year ago,” Gourinchas said.
Regionally, the IMF reported the following projections:
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United States: Growth is expected at 2.0% in 2025, slightly higher than the July forecast of 1.9%, with 2026 projected at 2.1%.
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Eurozone: Growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2025, up from 1.0% in July, supported by fiscal measures in Germany and strong domestic demand in Spain.
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Japan: GDP growth is projected at 1.1% in 2025, up from 0.7%, before moderating to 0.6% in 2026.
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China: Growth is expected to reach 4.8% in 2025 due to rising exports, though the IMF cautioned this may not be sustainable. The 2026 forecast is 4.2%.
The IMF emphasized that while global economic conditions are improving, risks remain. Any resurgence of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, could significantly slow global output.